9.13 am: NDA heading to 290 seats, Sensex up 1000 points The BJP is leading is 221 seats, with leads out in over 400 seats. At this rate, the NDA will get over 290 seats. The Congress is leading in only 52 seats, which shows that the party is headed to less than 100 seats. The market has opened meanwhile, and the Sensex has zoomed 1,000 points. The BJP is already celebrating. There are firecrackers being burst, drums and dancing outside BJP offices across the country. Meanwhile the Congress is already saying it will introspect. Abhishek Manu Singhvi of the Congress said that the time was right for introspection, but said that regardless of what the Congress did they would have likely lost. 9.00 am: Rahul Gandhi trailing in Amethi in first round Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi is trailing in Amethi, in the first round of voting.
This is to put it bluntly, terrible news for Gandhi, who has been at the front and centre of the Congress campaign. Ahead of the polls pundits said that it would be a huge blow to him if his victory margin fell dramatically (he won by 3.3 lakh votes in 2009) but if he actually goes ahead and loses, this would be an unprecedented blow. Sonia Gandhi is meanwhile, leading in Rae Bareli. Some other candidate updates: BJP's Harsh Vardhan is leading in Chandni Chowk over Congress' Kapil Sibal BJP's Sushma Swaraj is leading by a margin of 3,552 votes against Laxman Singh of Congress from the Vidisha seat in Madhya Pradesh. Dileep Singh Bhuria is ahead of his Congress rival and sitting MP Kantilal Bhuria by 909 votes from the Ratlam seat. Latest leads are out in 330 seats: BJP ahead in 182, Congress in 67.
8.50 am: Here is a quick statewise breakdown of leads so far Uttar Pradesh: BJP 23, Congress 6, SP 4, BSP 2 Andhra Pradesh: TDP 3, YSR Congress 3 Bihar: BJP 6, RJD 1 Delhi: BJP 2 Gujarat: BJP 17, Congress 3 Haryana: BJP 4, Congress 3 Tamil Nadu: AIADMK 6 Kerala: UDF 13, LDF 7 Karnataka: BJP 18, Congress 9, JDS 1 Maharashtra: BJP 8, Congress 7 Odisha BJD 2, BJP 1, Congress 1 8.42 am: BJP now leading in 100 seats, AAP gains in Punjab The BJP is leading in 100 seats, pulling well ahead of the Congress which is yet to hit 50. Meanwhile the Aam Aadmi Party has finally opened its account as it were, with a lead coming in from Punjab.
Some candidate updates: * Rahul Gandhi is leading from Amethi * Nandan Nilekani is trailing in Bangalore South 8.36 am: Leads out in 150 seats, BJP approaches a 100 fast We now have leads for over 15o seats, and the BJP is only consolidating its lead, approaching leads in 100 seats at seemingly breakneck speed. The party is ahead in 81 seats, and the Congress in 42. Bear in mind, that counting of EVMs has also begun, so the leads will now also start to reflect the actual counting process as well as the postal ballots. 8.30 am: Leads out in first 100 seats, BJP ahead We have the leads out for the first 100 seats.
The BJP is well ahead here, with the party ahead on 52 (a gain of 10), and the Congress ahead in 21. Here are some quick glimpses of how key candidates are doing: * Narendra Modi is leading Arvind Kejriwal from Varanasi, UP * Kapil Sibal is trailing from Chandni Chowk in Delhi * Shashi Tharoor is leading from Trivandrum, Kerala * Deve Gowda is leading from Hassan, Karnataka For more on key candidates, click here 8.20 am: BJP pulling ahead in early leads The BJP has started pulling ahead in early leads, We have leads in for 55 seats now, and the BJP is ahead in 31 seats, as opposed to the Congress' 13. The BJP is seeing a gain of 7 seats, while the Congress is down in 6 seats. This is really the best indication of what is happening.
The Congress is showing a steady decline in leads, a worrying indication for the party on what is to come. 8.10 am: Seven leads in, BJP - 6, Congress -1 The first leads are coming in, and the BJP expectedly is pulling ahead. At the last count, BJP were ahead in 7, Congress ahead in 3, while 'Others' were ahead in 1. Expect the information to flood in, as counting picks up momentum. However keep in mind that we are seeing postal ballots being counted, which are no real indication of the results. Treat them instead as a hint of what is to come. But it is indicative of trends, Meanwhile in terms of key battles, Narendra Modi is leading from Vadodara, and NDTV says that VK Singh is ahead in the seat of Ghaziabad. 8.07 am: First lead from Karnataka, BJP 1, Cong 0 The first leads have started coming in. The first two leads are from Karnataka and Kerala, and the BJP is ahead in both. The Kerala lead is a surprise, given that the party has not won a single Lok Sabha seat in the state. Early confirmation of a Modi wave? Perhaps. 8.00 am: Counting starts, first trends expected at 9.3o am Counting has begun in the Lok Sabha elections.
The first trends are expected to come out in moments. The Election Commission said the counting exercise to be held at 989 counting centres is likely to be completed by 4 pm and trends will start emerging by 9.30 am. By noon, a final picture could emerge on who would be the major players in the 16th Lok Sabha. According to EC guidelines, half-an-hour after the postal ballots are counted, the process of counting votes from the over seven lakh EVMs will begin. The 'ballot unit' is switched on in the presence of senior poll officials and counting agents of candidates and the result command keyed in to get results per machine. In order to ensure transparency, EC has deployed micro observers at all counting tables. The returning officers have been directed to provide printout of each counting round and every table to the counting agents of candidates. Lok Sabha elections 2014 witnessed the highest-ever turnout with 66.38 per cent of an estimated 814 million voters exercising their franchise — the highest ever in the history of general elections. 7.42 am: Kejriwal still sure of beating Modi Staring down the abyss of bleak exit poll results, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is still putting on a brave face. Regardless of the fact that BJP cadres in the constituency have already put up banners congratulating Narendra Modi, he says he is still confident of winning. Speaking to reporters Kejriwal said, "I am sure people of Varanasi have voted for truth, I am going there right now as well". 7.33 am: Why we will see delayed results this year This year, the results are expected to come in a lot slower than they did in 2009. Why? Because of an improved counting process, says the Indian Express. According to the newspaper, part of the reason is because there 2014 has 50 percent more EVM control units than in 2009, as well as significantly more candidates. Furthermore, the second round of counting will not be started until the data from the first round is compiled, verified and released by the Returning Officer. In 2009, both rounds of counting were done simultaneously. CEC VS Sampath speaking to reporters this morning said, "Counting is a critical activity, utmost transparency ensured in counting hall". 7.18 am: BJP ready with crackers, ladoos Narendra Modi and the BJP may be outwardly cautious even in the wake of exit polls that are giving the BJP led NDA a massive victory. Reports coming in from Uttar Pradesh say that party cadre in Kanpur from where Murli Manohar Joshi is in the fray have started bursting crackers. And at the party headquarters in Delhi. Sweets and firecracks have been ordered in huge quantities. That's right - lots and lots of ladoos. And ANI has tweeted out a picture of this banner outside the BJP headquarters in Delhi: And here's a picture from Gujarat 7.00 am: Are the exit polls right to predict a Modi sarkar? Will months of hype culminate in a Modi sarkar? That is the million dollar question that will be finally answered in a few hours. Months of relentless campaigning across the political spectrum, mudslinging, allegations, political back and forth, the making and breaking of alliances, and of course nine phases of polling spread across one and a half months will all culminate today. Here is a quick round up of the key aspects of the polls so far: Exit polls The biggest question of course is, have the exit polls got it right? Across the board the polls have predicted that the BJP led NDA will easily form the next government, although there are some differences in ranges and the number of seats each party will get in various states. The final version of the IBN-CSDS National Election Tracker survey -- which includes the last day of polling -- predicted that the BJP-led NDA is expected to comfortably reach a majority with between 274-286 seats. The Congress-led UPA is expected to win just 92-102 seats with the Congress possibly winning the lowest total ever in a general election. The inclusion of the final phase of voting in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal only marginally shifted the national vote shares of the major parties, notably nudging the BJP number down from 34 percent to 33.5 percent. ABP-Nielsen, on the other hand, predicted 281 seats for the NDA and just 97 for UPA. AAP has got 4 seats, while others (which will translate into a possible Third Front in this case) will win 161 seats. The survey by Times Now-ORG says the NDA is set to win 249 seats, while the UPA is set to win 148. This is the only poll that says that the NDA will not be able to form the government on its own. Representational image: Reuters Other exit poll surveys include Zee News, which projected the NDA getting 289 seats, the UPA winning just 100 seats and 153 seats for 'others'. India TV gives the NDA 289 seats and the UPA 106 seats. India Today said that the BJP-led NDA could end with 261-283 seats, while the Congress-led UPA will win 110-120 seats. (For more on all the exit polls, click here). Who will come the closest? We'll know in a matter of hours! The importance of UP Much hinges on Uttar Pradesh, including how far or how close the NDA gets to 272. Amit Shah, Modi's closest aide and in charge of UP for this election, has projected 55 seats for the party out of UP's 80. This is ambitious, but not impossible to imagine -- if a couple of dozen seats that are to be very keenly contested go the BJP's way. Exit polls have predicted up to 40-odd seats for the BJP in UP, up from the 10 LS MPs they have from the state right now. However the NDTV-Hansa poll that was released on Wednesday, gave the NDA 56 seats in the state, with a range that goes all the way up to 61. Old-timers in the BJP also believe the 55-seat projection may be unrealistic. Samajwadi Party and the BSP have their areas of influence and it's difficult to believe the other parties put together will all win less than 30 seats. The AAP factor Much has been made of 'new kids on the block' AAP, especially after their stunning debut in the Delhi assembly elections and their equally stunning decision to resign from government in just 49 days. Although the party certainly grabbed media eyeballs and attention - only helped by the fact that Arvind Kejriwal decided to take on Narendra Modi in Varanasi - it does not look set to do very well at all. Image from IBN-live All the exit polls are giving the party less than ten seats overall, a far cry from the 100 that Kejriwal declared that he was confident of winning. Many feel however that the real contribution of the AAP lies in the qualitative change it has brought to the nation’s politics. But where does the party head from here? As Firstpost columnist Chandrakant Naidu noted "The government in Delhi which it formed after a spectacular electoral debut as a year-old-party is lost. As is a big chunk of its supporters. If it fails to register a decent performance in the Lok Sabha polls in Delhi, it would be a loss of face. It would be starting from the scratch - minus the goodwill - if elections are held for the assembly some time in future" What is truly tragic for AAP is that they came up so short in an election that brought out thousands of young voters. This should really have been their election. But Modi capitalised on it instead. Who are the potential NDA allies if it falls short of a majority? The predictions of the exit polls notwithstanding, the NDA is not taking any chances, and have already started wooing parties for potential support if they fall short of a majority. The BJP is apparently in talks with Naveen Patnaik's BJD which is expected to do well in Odisha, Jayalalithaa who has been widely predicted to complete a near sweep in Tamil Nadu, and Jagan Reddy, who is tipped to be the first Chief Minister of Seemandhra. The party has also reached out to the former NCP leader PA Sangma for some additional numbers from the north-east.
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